Up and Running:

I’m watching with great enjoyment the Apple iPad announcement and especially all the analysis of the iPad vs. Kindle implications.  That seems like the big issue. Google “iPad vs Kindle” some time. As I write this, two mornings after the announcement, I get 4.3 million hits on that. For example, PC Magazine calls the iPad a Kindle Killer, and Huffington Post asks Will Apple’s New Product Make eReaders Obsolete?

However, unless Apple blocks the Kindle app on the iPad–which would be crazy–then the real issue is the extra $5 for ebook features like color and better formatting. The iPad owner will get to choose between the $14.99 slick iPad version of the book or the $9.99 Kindle version.

I’m already running the Kindle app on my iPhone, and it works very well. The Amazon.com background synchronization gets me automatically to the last page read on any device. While I can read books on the physical Kindle, I can also keep them on my phone and have a novel ready any time I get 10 minutes waiting idly somewhere.

When I get the iPad (which I will, as soon as it starts shipping), that gives me a nicer and more comfortable place to read the same books I’ve already bought on my Kindle account. And transfer them to my iPhone for portability.

And, to make the choice more interesting, how much do you want to bet that the iPad reader app will be transferable to the iPhone and iPod Touch, so you can have that kind of flexibility with the Apple reader options, too? I think it’s obvious. Kindle buyers get more functionality. Apple-only buyers get a slick new ebook option. Everybody wins.

This is good for consumers, giving us more choices and better technology. And it’s also good for the Kindle accounts. Let the buyer choose.

(Image: taken from amazon.com)

It was only last September that I posted here that I want a Kindle Reader on my Laptop. Going right along with my long-term theme about how the good ideas are already out there and lots of people have them at the same time, it’s now clear that Amazon.com was way ahead of me. Because the Kindle software for PC is downloadable today.

Two things strike me about this: first, that it’s there now, and the Mac version is coming. You can put your name on a list to be alerted when that’s available. Second, business ideas are like this. When I was posting about it a few months ago, Amazon.com was already working on it. It was that obvious. Which shows again that the thing to do with a good idea is implement. Make it happen. Don’t think the idea itself has any value.

And this morning there’s another fascinating new Kindle note from TechCrunch as well: Amazon To Introduce New 70% Royalty Option For Kindle Digital Text Platform. I love this one. Amazon.com is apparently opening up a new opportunity for e-book entrepreneurs. Package yourself, deliver the buyers and take most of the revenue. It seems like a good deal for Amazon.com and a good deal for entrepreneurs.

I suspect some people will worry that this cuts through the role of the publishers. But I don’t think so. I think the publisher model means careful selection, editing, production and a lasting piece of the market. Adding a self-published model on top just gives us all–entrepreneurs, authors and readers–more choice.

Here’s an interesting new business that might be useful for Web app and related entrepreneurs. I found it on TechCrunch this morning: “WatchMouse Monitors 26 Popular APIs So You Don’t Have To.” If you don’t know what an API is, this probably doesn’t concern you, but it stands for Application Programming Interface. You’ll probably recognize some of these names (quoting the post):

The lists of monitored APIs consists of 26 of the most heavily trafficked Web services, including Google Search, Google Maps, Bing, Facebook, Twitter, SalesForce, YouTube, Amazon, eBay and others.

The company, WatchMouse, is launching a new service dubbed API-status.com today.

I have no personal experience with APIs, but my company links up with several, and I read a lot of business plans for business offerings that depend on them. There’s a lot of entrepreneurial interest out there, because there’s a lot of functionality. I use apps based on APIs frequently, and you do, too.

Here’s an interesting graphic (straight from the TechCrunch post, so you can click on it to get to the source):

(Source: this graphic is on the TechCrunch post. Click to get there.)

Obviously there are a lot of good top 10 trends lists for small business, social media, technology and all, as seems to happen every year at this time. I’ve seen a lot of them, and I recommend Steve King’s Top 10 Small Business Trends for 2010 from Small Business Labs, posted yesterday.

One big point in Steve’s favor, and a big credibility boost as well, is that Steve starts the piece with links to his trends posts for each of the previous two years. Good touch. And I’m impressed–he called things fairly well.

Comparing all three posts–2008, 2009 and 2010–I see some broader trends. It reads like the spread of more and smaller: more solopreneur; more baby boomer businesses; something like economic diffusion spurred on by the multiple whammy of the big recession, baby boomer demographics and technology. Green business shows up in all three. Buy local shows up in two of three. Social media and closely related factors show up in all three.

This makes interesting reading, and good food for business thought.

Here’s a very brief summary of his top 10 for 2010:

Economic Trends

1. The Shift to Contingent Workers Turns Employees into Entrepreneurs
2. Personal Businesses on the Rise
3. Small Business Lending Returns to Pre-Bubble Levels

Social Trends

1. The New Local Movement
2. There is No Place Like Home for Small Business. (More home businesses)
3. Clean and Green Creating Small-Business Opportunities

Technology Trends

1. Social, Mobile and Cloud Computing Converge
2. Location Technology and Services (GPS and so on)
3. Analytical Tools Lead to Data-Driven Decisions
4. Online Training Brings Professional Education to Small Business

Fashionable. Trendy. New. Different. Important for entrepreneurs.

Of course you don’t need to always be new and exciting, or different or trendy, to make a successful new business. Just do something well, offer value, do something people want and will pay for; that’s a really good start. Think of the restaurant business. Just because there are millions of them already, does that mean new ones don’t start and make it? Of course not.

Still, new business happens more often, more readily, on new business landscapes. Technology keeps offering new opportunities. I can’t help thinking that as entrepreneurs we should be aware of the major technology trends. Which are, for me at least, the four in the title here.

Over the long holiday weekend I read “Why Twitter Will Endure,” a good thought piece by David Carr on NYTimes.com. Everything he says there makes sense to me. If you like Twitter, there are no surprises in that piece. If you don’t, maybe you should read it.

Although I liked what Ann Handley added to it, on Twitter:

I like @carr2n’s NYT piece, but I still think @stevenbjohnson said it best last June: “Twitter matters because it’s about what matters.”

And those other three? Well, just within the last week or so, there’s Ben Kunz on Business Week with “5 Ways Apple’s Tablet May Change the World.” And Seth Godin touts the growth of the eBook reader in this piece on his blog. And Megan Berry, of Mobclix, on “How to Get in on the Mobile Boom.” (disclosure: she’s my daughter)

Maybe none of that affects your business, specifically; but should we agree to add the word “yet?”  As in, none of that affects your business yet?

Here I was thinking that the tablet computer might finally reach a point of critical mass, with an Apple tablet. But now the latest rumor, on VentureBeat, is that it’s not a tablet. It’s an eBook reader. 

I should emphasize: That’s a rumor. As the buzz has it, Apple’s going to announce something on Jan. 26. It’s bought the domain name “islate.com” and pictures have shown up in a few obscure places. The one here appears on the VentureBeat story by Paul Boutin.

He says:

I believe this for one simple reason: After years of false starts, the market for e-readers is finally hot. Amazon claims eBooks outsold paper books in total dollars spent at Amazon on Christmas Day. Book and magazine publishers are the last holdouts against a fully digital media world. And although their revenues are down, they can still get people to spend $10 on a novel in digital format.

Either way, I love the way the rumors develop and how trends build. Here it is the last workday of 2009. Tablet computers have been around for five or six years, and eBook readers for more than 10. What makes critical mass? Is it the major player jumping in? But Sony’s been struggling with an eBook reader for several years now, and my first tablet computer was made by Toshiba. Those are big names.

Both of these technologies are very attractive to me. But I have to admit, as an owner and user of both a Kindle and a tablet computer, I’d rather have my tablet computer read eBooks when I want it to, but I also want to take notes, watch videos and browse the Web. And my iPhone with the Kindle software does a great job as an eBook reader already.

With the high-tech world all abuzz about tablet computing, I enjoyed Steve King’s Lessons from OLPC post today, about the One Laptop per Child (OLPC) initiative and its version of the tablet computer

Steve put the illustration shown here on his Small Business Labs blog post. Here’s his summary of the design specifications:

Their new tablet will be made of a single sheet of flexible plastic that will be unbreakable. The hook on the corner will be used for carrying the PC and the price goal is less than $100. Low-cost components mean less power than a full-sized PC, but plenty of juice for almost all PC users.

I’ve been a happy user of tablet computers for several years now, and I’m eager for the Apple tablet to appear because I want to own one. I’ve been using Motion Computing tablets mostly.

But Steve’s right. One of the most interesting developments in computing is the low-cost student laptop. Even now, it’s because of OLPC that we can get decent netbooks for $300 or less. This is a trend worth watching in the future.

(Illustration courtesy of Steve King, Smallbizlabs)

Over the weekend I read Taking care of the cobbler’s children on Nash Ramblings. This is good advice, punctuated by experience and some realistic scare stories.

Post author Donald Patti starts with a story of an otherwise-thriving small business temporarily crippled by its systems failing. He says:

Yet, despite the obvious success of the business, the network equipment was nearly a decade old, all of the servers were used or refurbished and the employees’ desktop computers were more than two generations obsolete.

He refers to basic economics, where productivity is affected by capital and people. Why do entrepreneurs let this happen? he asks and then answers:

In most cases, small-business owners build their business from the ground up by repeatedly stretching human resources to make up for the lack of capital investment or technology, rewarding these employees with equity or large delivery bonuses in exchange for working lots of overtime. As time passes, the entrepreneur equates scarcity and heavy workloads with success

This is a good lesson, and a good reminder. Most companies work on computers, and old, slow computers–with small monitors–are a drag. I’m proud to say that as we grew Palo Alto Software, during the critical growth years, we tried to keep our computers and software up-to-date, always. Productivity begins with tools.

Donald Patti goes on to share four specific scare stories of small businesses hurt by failure to upgrade equipment. Things like losing the best programmers or losing the best customers. Scary stories.

My mother used to use the phrase “penny-wise, pound-foolish.” It fits.

(Photo credit: Seattle Municipal Archives via Flickr)

We all know there’s a huge boom in mobile computing and mobile marketing, but does that mean you either develop phone applications or look on from the sidelines longingly? Not hardly.

I read How to get in on the Mobile boom on VentureBeat yesterday. What I like about that post (aside from the fact that it’s written by my daughter) is the nice list of options. It’s a good reminder that you don’t necessarily have to create the world’s best iPhone application to take your business into the mobile world. It can be as simple as buying advertising. And it can also be staged, taking ads as a first step and seeing how that goes before you go on.

This is good advice:

Don’t just go charging in to develop your own iPhone app. Take just a little time to consider what makes the most sense for your company. Mobile advertising can be a great way to get your feet wet, while building up a full mobile presence requires a bigger investment with the possibility of greater rewards and risks.

She points out five main options, three of them variations on advertising, and two of them involving code and programming and mobile apps.

1. Advertising inside applications.

The Apple App Market has 115,000 apps, and the Android market already has 13,000 according to a Mobclix App Snapshot in a recent SMART report. In-app advertising can allow in-depth targeting based not only on application, but also by behavior, demographic information and location.

2. Advertising on the mobile web.

Most new phones have web browsing, so there’s a range of expense levels and targeting available.

3. Sponsoring an application.

Let somebody else do the software, but join them in the branding.

An example of this is the 50 Cent “Baby By Me” sound lab that allows the user to remix 50 Cent’s latest song, while prominently featuring Vitamin Water. This is much less common, but depending on your marketing strategy, might be a good middle way between banner ads and developing your own application.

4. Create a customized mobile website.

It’s not always that hard, as more platforms become available, customizations of existing websites, optimizing with CSS and other tools. Lever off what you already have, and get onto the mobile browsers on phones.

5. Create a mobile application.

More resources required–more risk, too–but the web application can also be the biggest win. The post ticks off some intriguingly big successes, like Adobe’s iPhone Photoshop application; eBay’s iPhone application; and Pandora, the internet radio web application, which discovered its new iPhone application is generating half of its new signups.

(Photo credit: Madlen/Shutterstock)

Steve Jurvetson, of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, one of the oldest and best-known venture capital firms, talks here about the Ray Kurzweil interpretation of Moore’s Law. From the intro:

… which retroactively looks at the evolution of technology and the economy in terms of the numbers of calculations possible for a thousand dollars for the past hundred years. Of interest to the entrepreneur, Jurvetson points out that of global, social, and economic factors over time, there seems to be no coupling with the evolution of technology. Despite a poor economy, recessionary concerns, wars and political unrest, cites Jurvetson, technology continues to evolve at a steady and unstoppable pace.

This is short (less than three minutes) and right to the point.

If for any reason you don’t see the video here, you can go to the source on Stanford’s ecorner site.

There’s no question that marketing is changing. Advertising is dying and getting reborn all over the place, and word-of-mouth is leveraged by technology tools. The problem is how, how much, how fast and how does it affect your business? It’s a new world, with a changed landscape.

For idea leadership in this realm, look to Seth Godin: his books and his blog. He’s redefining advertising as “shouting.” And he looks to a new kind of marketing built on being remarkable, in a very literal sense of the word: remarkable, as in something that people will talk about. And for practical how-to leadership, I recommend John Jantsch, Duct Tape Marketing founder, redefining marketing as getting people to know, like and trust you.

And for actually working rapidly changing marketing assumptions into your own business plan, frankly, it’s hard these days. It’s complicated because the landscape is built on sand mines; it crumbles fast.

I recommend you use a methodology somewhat akin to following the money for the financial portions of your plan. But for the marketing portions, you follow the attention. You could call that eyeballs (a popular web term), or mindshare, if you prefer.

Start with attention. Ask yourself what makes people aware of a need, a problem or a want that you solve. You could call that an itch, because need is misleading: People buy a lot of goods and services they don’t really need. So you want to understand what gives people the itch that leads to you when they scratch it. And then you understand how to scratch the itch: Where do they look for solutions? Is it habit, the shop next door? Do they look in some repository in their mind or memory, like some ad they’ve got stored in the back of their mind? Or do they open a web page and do a Google or some other search?

I read about an IBM study called The end of advertising as we know it on Michael Glass’ Fuel Lines advertising blog. This is very interesting stuff. He quotes the IBM study:

Imagine an advertising world where … spending on interactive, one-to-one advertising formats surpasses traditional, one-to-many advertising vehicles, and a significant share of ad space is sold through auctions and exchanges. Advertisers know who viewed and acted on an ad and pay based on real impact rather than estimated “impressions.” Consumers self-select which ads they watch and share preferred ads with peers. User-generated advertising is as prevalent (and appealing) as agency-created spots.

And Glass adds his own commentary, from his advertising professional’s point of view.

There is no question that the future of advertising will look radically different from its past. The push for control of attention, creativity, measurements and inventory will reshape the advertising value chain and shift the balance of power.

And what can you do about it? Follow the attention. Follow the eyeballs.

With all the talk surrounding the landmark book Free by Chris Anderson, I want to recommend Steve King’s post “Free isn’t a Business Model, But it is a Business Strategy” on his Small Business Labs blog.

I’ve followed the Free controversy myself, and posted about it here on this blog, and  here on the Huffington Post, when two of my favorite authors, Malcolm Gladwell and Seth Godin, squared off about it a few months ago. Gladwell essentially hated the idea, and Godin declared it here whether we like it or not.

If I had to choose one short description of the basic idea, it would be this paragraph from Anderson’s 2008 story in Wired:

Once a marketing gimmick, free has emerged as a full-fledged economy. Offering free music proved successful for Radiohead, Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails and a swarm of other bands on MySpace that grasped the audience-building merits of zero. The fastest-growing parts of the gaming industry are ad-supported casual games online and free-to-try massively multi-player online games. Virtually everything Google does is free to consumers, from Gmail to Picasa to GOOG-411.

King has a gift for summary. He says in his post:

Free has been used effectively as a business strategy and marketing tactic for pretty much as long as businesses have existed. Given how widespread and successful free is and has been, I don’t see how you challenge the concept.

The only place I see room for criticism is if you think Anderson is suggesting that free is a complete business model. Obviously, if free means no source of revenue then it is destined for failure. But I don’t think this is what Anderson is suggesting.

King goes on to point out several examples. He also points out that it could be tactic, strategy or something else. And it’s not that new an idea, either (Chris Anderson would agree with all three).

Are you looking at using a free offer as part of a business plan? You’ll have good company. I do hope, though, that you define for yourself the specific business objectives (traffic, visibility, whatever) and put in some metrics so you can measure results.

(Image credit: from Wired.com, Free! Why $0.00 Is the Future of Business)